Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 08 Feb 2008 06:00 to Sat 09 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 07 Feb 2008 18:30
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Downstream of a compact polar vortex, rising geopotential heights overspread most parts of Europe with gpdm readings of 578 over France during the forecast period.Not much to say as atmosphere is stable and no convective activity is expected.

Mainly as a side-note. A strong low pressure area approaches SE Greenland from the south and as a result temperature gradient increases rapidly during the forecast period. Latest model outputs continue to show a racy intensification in the left exit region of a strong 80m/s 300hPa streak. In fact the latest Canadian global model output has a whopping 932hPa central pressure just SE of Greenland which equals a 12h-pressure fall of more than 30hPa.

The main focus for scattered but sub-severe thunderstorms is over the SE corner of our area of responsibility. 0-3km CAPE slowly increases as upper-level low draws near and an isolated waterspout could occur, but overall risk is too low for a categorical level area.During the following model runs we have to keep an eye on a convergence zone, setting up during the end of the forecast period just west of Crete, which could be another focus for isolated waterspout development.