Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 03 Feb 2008 06:00 to Mon 04 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 02 Feb 2008 20:48
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Intense meandering upper frontal zone is stretching from the Atlantic across Europe ... with the next Atlantic long-wave trough reaching western continental Europe towards Sunday evening. Attendant to this feature is a large-scale and intense SFC low which will cover much of western Europe by the end of the period. Comparatively weak/broad southern frontal zone is extending across the Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

... Mediterranean ...

One focus for deep convection remains a trough imbedded in the Mediterranean upper frontal zone. However, instability will likely remain shallow and quite small in magnitude. DLS is simulated to increase to about 15 to 20 m/s over the southern portions of the western Mediterranean late on Sunday, but weak forcing and corresponding weak coverage od convection do not seem to necessitate a categorical risk at the moment.

... Gulf of Biscay ... western France ...

Beneath the thermal-trough region of the Atlantic system, rather deep cellular convection is anticipated, which will reach western France late Sunday night. Shear will be minimized where convection will be deepest, but storms closest to the upper jet near the eastern periphery of the upper trough may benefit from about 15 m/s DLS. Convection reaching the coast will likely fall apart given the loss of surface heating, but before doing so, it may briefly profit from rather strong frictionally-enhanced LLS. This implies that there may be a small threat for shallow/brief mesocyclones that could produce a brief/weak tornado or two. However, threat appears to be too low for a categorical risk.