Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 25 Jan 2008 06:00 to Sat 26 Jan 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 24 Jan 2008 18:54
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

The active high index pattern over the northern Atlantic continues during the forecast period. Few intense streaks cause an active period as numerous depressions develop and decay.
The most intense streak builds south of Greenland during the night hours and peaks at about 200kt at 300hPa. This feature evolves downstream of an amplifying Newfoundland trough and is the beginning of a more disturbed upper-level streamline pattern over the Northern Atlantic.
Stable conditions prevail for the rest of Europe.

DISCUSSION

... Central Norway and Sweden ...

A powerful sub-975hPa depression approaches central Norway during the morning hours, coming onshore during the evening hours while weakening.
Airmass is not too conducive for significant convective activity as moisture at lower levels is meager at best. GFS has a few signals of low-end instability release over central Norway and cold EL temperatures could support even an isolated electrified updraft, but updraft support seems to be too marginal for drawing any thunderstorm area.
The best chance for convective activity exists along the coastal areas of western Norway.

... Parts of the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Riga...

As a response to the main system over Norway, coming onshore during the evening hours, upper-level flow over the area of interest becomes more diffluent. A compact PVA field crosses the area from the west around midnight as the upper-level trough axis approaches and conditions become supportive for a few thunderstorms along the eastward racing cold front, crossing the central Baltic Sea between 00Z and 03Z.
Again, no thunderstorm area was issued as thunderstorm coverage should be isolated and activity quite short-lived. The best possibility for stronger convective activity exists next to the Gulf of Riga, as fetch should be long enough for some moistening of the BL.
Gusty winds and marginal hail will be the main risk.

...Scotland...

An open wave affects Scotland during the latter part of the forecast period and models indicate better instability release with this feature, but timing, atmospheric stratification and ill BL moistening preclude any highlighted areas.

...Eastern Mediterranean...

Finally, a small thunderstorm area was issued for this region, as a few thunderstorms could form in the range of a weakening trough.
Nothing severe expected with this activity, wich also is forecast to diminish during the late morning hours.