Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 21 Jan 2008 06:00 to Tue 22 Jan 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 20 Jan 2008 18:59
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS DISCUSSION

Monday at 06:00 UTC, a west-northwesterly mid/upper jet is located from the British Isles to the Ukraine, which is associated with a front that separates cold polar air to the north and warmer, humid but stable air in the south. A trough west of Ireland is expected to merge with a vorticity max over the Norwegian Sea before moving eastward into Europe on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a small surface cyclone over northwestern Ireland is expected to push the front and the polar air trailing it southeastward. Meanwhile, a low pressure centre over the southern Gulf of Bothnia will gradually move southeastward.
On the polar side of the front, the only significant deep, moist convection is expected over the Norwegian Sea. A little lightning may occur, but does not warrant a lightning area. South of the front, the air-mass is too stable for deep convection.