Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 16 Dec 2007 06:00 to Mon 17 Dec 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 15 Dec 2007 17:03
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

High-over-low upper pattern is present over Europe, with the upper low's center slowly moving from the central Adriatic into the western Mediterranean. A large SFC high is sprawling over most of the European continent ... and some cyclogenesis is simulated at its southern periphery over the SW Mediterranean early on Sunday.


DISCUSSION

... Mediterranean ...

At first glance, it seems that some severe threat will develop over the central Mediterranean where rather intense deep shear will exist, along with quite steep - albeit weakening - low-level lapse rates. However, it seems that the ingredients will not really coincide spatially. At some spots, a few multicellular storms, capable of isolated/brief marginally severe wind and maybe some hail cannot be discounted, but majority of the storms should be more or less disorganized. Strong low-level lapse rates are simulated ... but along with strong low-level flow, reducing the waterspout threat over most places. So ... since favorable shear seems to remain offset from the regions of appreciable convection ... and since the steep LL lapse rates will be accompanied by ample low level flow ... it seems quite difficult to single out a location clearly favored for severe weather. Hence, a level-one threat is not introduced at this time, though Especially over the E Ionian Sea, some waterspouts could occur in marginally supportive environment.