Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 26 Nov 2007 06:00 to Tue 27 Nov 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 25 Nov 2007 18:44
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC... an elongated trough is located over Europe, stretching from northern Scandinavia to the northwestern Balkans. A shortwave trough initally over Austria is expectd to round the base of the trough and move eastward over Hungary and northern Romania reaching the south-central Ukraine at the end of the forecast period. The longwave trough is followed from the west by a broad ridge. Further south, a closed low over western Algeria moves northeastward, reaching the Mediterranean coast on Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Western Balkans, Greece...

A cold front leading an outbreak of cold polar air that initally stretches from southwest Romania to southern Bosnia to the northern Apennines in Italy, reaching the central Aegean Sea and west-central Greece on Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, storms are likely developing over the Aegean Sea, where relatively warm and moist Mediterranean air should be in place so that 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE can develop. The storms should develop within a highly-sheared environment with about 300 m2/s2 SREH forecast. As a result storms may develop rotating updrafts and bowing segments. A chance of severe winds, large hail will exist while a tornado cannot be fully excluded either. As the front reaches Greece during the evening, severe threat should diminish in response to mid-level warming.