Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 05 Nov 2007 06:00 to Tue 06 Nov 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 04 Nov 2007 20:33
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC... a large NE-SW oriented trough extending from western Russia via the Ukraine to the southern Adriatic Sea moves eastward reaching a line from West Kazachstan to central Turkey on tuesday morning. In the eastern Meditrreanean it is preceded by a cold front that initially stretches from NW Turkey over central Greece to S Italy.
A well-defined ridge follows this trough. Further upstream, a trough intially located NW of the British Isles digs southward reaching a line from central Norway to the Czech Republic on Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Eastern Mediterranean...

Widespread convective activity, likely organized into one or two MCS's are probably ongoing in vicinity of a surface low near Rhodes and possibly along the Turkish west coast. 500-1000 of J/kg are likely available to the convection as in Sunday's 12:00 UTC sounding at Heraklion. Deep-layer shear will be substantial with 20 to over 30 m/s 0-6 km shear, so that storm organization into supercells is likely especially along the Turkish south coast, where SRH is forecast to be substantial with values over 200 m2/s2 forecast by GFS. Therefore, a relatively high threat of severe weather is forecast there, that may include tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. The storms as well as the surface low are forecast to move eastward along the Turkish south coast and out of the ESTOFEX forecast area during the afternoon.

During the afternoon and evening, a second round of storms is expected to develop along the cold front moving southward over the Ionian Sea, Greece and the Aegean Sea. Low-level shear should by then have weakened a bit, reducing the chance on severe weather somewhat. Localized large hail and strong wind gusts are however still possible with those storms.