Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 29 Oct 2007 06:00 to Tue 30 Oct 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 29 Oct 2007 08:18
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Mondat at 06:00 UTC, a cold front that extends from near Stockholm over northwest Gemany and northwest France to Galicia.
A longwave trough located over the British Isles moves eastward. A mid-/upper-low that is located between SE Spain and Algeria moves slowly east-northeastward. Downstream of a ridge over Italy, a shortwave trough extending from Bosnia to central Italy moves rapidly southeastward.

DISCUSSION

Bosnia, Montenegro, Serbia, F.Y.R. of Macedonia, North Greece...

A few 100's J/kg are expected to develop in response to strong lift ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Although low-level shear is rather weak, strong deep-layer shear may prove sufficient to organize convection that is expected to ensue during the morning. A few marginally severe large hail events and strong to severe wind gusts are possible.

Western Mediterranean...

Warm air advection is forecast over much of the western Mediterranean on the northern and eastern flanks of a surface low that moves eastward from northwestern Algeria to Sardinia. This will likely produce scattered partially clustered thunderstorms, some of which elevated in the north and west of the indicated area. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear of 15-25 m/s and 500m MLCAPEs in the 500-1500 J/kg range are forecast in the threat level 1 area. Widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop in the west of the level 1 area and spread eastward tonight. Shear and instability parameters suggest that a risk of a few severe events will be present primarily large hail and a few severe wind gusts.