Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 15 Oct 2007 06:00 to Tue 16 Oct 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 14 Oct 2007 19:38
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Upper flow configuration ... featuring a deep upper ridge over central Europe and two long-wave troughs at its eastern and western flanks ... will slowly shift eastwards as a whole during the period. A weak upper low will persist over the Iberian Peninsula and will likely be focus for potentially severe convective development on Monday. At low levels ... southwesterly flow will establish over northwestern parts of Europe with the eastward shift of the Atlantic upper trough, while high pressure persists across southeastern Europe.

DISCUSSION

... southwestern Mediterranean Sea ...

It seems that steep mid-level lapse rates and rather strong low-level moisture will be present southeast of Spain, so that weak to moderate CAPE should persist/develop. Forcing for upward motion appears to be strongest late in the day/night, so that significant convection may not develop before evening. 15 to 20 m/s DLS will be in place, so that some of the storms may become organized, possibly congealing into several smaller MCSs. Main threats should be severe wind gusts and large hail, though a brief/isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, either.

... southern Black Sea ...

GFS simulates very steep mean 0-500 m lapse rates over the Black Sea and parts of the Aegean/Adriatic/Ionian Sea in the southward-spreading, rather shallow continental polar air mass, hinting at some water-spout potential. Over the southern Black Sea, weak and shallow CAPE is predicted, and it does appear that sufficiently convection may be ongoing during the period. The low-level wind field appears to be somewhat strong, but still, several water spouts are anticipated along the Turkish north coast, probably being more frequent early in the period than late in the period.