Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 14 Oct 2007 06:00 to Mon 15 Oct 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 13 Oct 2007 18:37
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

No significant changes compared to yesterday. A strong high pressure area, centered over Switzerland is surrounded by one strong trough over the northern Atlantic Ocean and another one over western Russia and the western Black Sea.

Most parts of Europe will see warm and mostly stable conditions .
Convective activity is on the increase over SW Europe, as a weak upper-level trough approaches from the west.

DISCUSSION

... Parts of the Black Sea...

There is a small window of opportunity for a few thunderstorms to develop in the highlighted area, as cold mid-level pool slides eastwards.
Shear at lower troposphere stays weak and although DLS of 30-40m/s will be present, convection should stay too low topped for taking profit of the stronger upper-level winds. Instability signals get more pronounced during the night hours and EL-analysis indicates the possibility for some deeper convection between 00 and 06Z. We therefore issued a marginal level-1 as an isolated severe wind gust report is not out of the question, but the main threat should be gusty winds and small hail.

...Parts of Portugal and Spain...

A weak trough affects those regions and a few thunderstorms are forecast. Kinematic parameters don't support any significant storm organisation although more robust instability and 15m/s shear at 0-3km should be enough to support stronger wind gusts offshore. We think that those gusts should stay below severe criterion as no organisation e.g. into a line is expected .... we therefore decided not to issue a level-1.