Forecast Update
Valid: Sat 12 May 2007 19:00 to Sun 13 May 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 12 May 2007 18:55
Forecaster: TUSCHY
SYNOPSIS
Please refer to the outlook, issued at Fri 11 May 2007 21:48 UTC !
DISCUSSION
The update will reflect some changes which became necessary.
...Level-1 over Belgium, the Netherlands , Germany and parts of Poland...
Latest radar images of N-Germany still indicate a few stronger storms, but activity should constantly diminish during the next few hours. Although a few more thunderstorms could go on / develop, no highlighted area will be issued due to isolated nature of thunderstorm coverage.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms still travel towards the east and central /eastern Poland could see some more storms during the next few hours, but rapidly diminishing instability values will limit the threat for more organized storms. Hence a general thunderstorm area looks reasonable.
...Level-1 for parts of Austria, Slovenia and Hungary...
Intense hailstorm over parts of Carinthia continues to travel towards the SE with still some strong reflectivity signals present.
The same for parts of Slovakia, where strong-severe thunderstorms are still present with an attendant isolated hail threat.
Those cells should start a gradual weakening trend during the next hour or so as instability will diminish.
Hence no level-1 will be necessary anymore.
...Level-1 for the area north of the Ukraine...
A few storms still go on, but should leave the area of responsibility during the next few hours. Furthermore already slim instability values should taper off and no severe weather threat can be expected.
...Level-1 for S-UK ...
Annoying thunderstorm forecast for S-UK will come to an end as thermodynamic stratification will get worse during the next few hours and instability will taper off.
Although an isolated SFLOC report over N-Ireland and central - UK will still be possible, no general thunderstorm area will be drawn at this time.
...Level-1 for the Bay of Biscay...
Some modifications to the level- 1 area were done.
A downgrade over N-Spain,SW France and the SE part of the Bay of Biscay looks reasonable because of strong WAA which should strengthen the already stout cap ( Bordeaux at 12Z ).
Otherwise parts of NW France were included into the level-1 as strong jet at 850hPa will come onshore between 00-06Z. Still nice veering forecast and combination of low instability release and strong shear would support at least an isolated severe wind gust / tornado and hail threat.
