Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 21 Apr 2007 06:00 to Sun 22 Apr 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 21 Apr 2007 06:10
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Upper split flow pattern persists across Europe, with broad westerly flow prevailing over northern parts of Europe, and a weaker southern branch extending across the very northern African states as well as over the southern Mediterranean. Upper low covering S Iberia and the NW Maghreb States at the beginning of the period should make little SEWD progress during the period, while downstream vort max over S Italy on Saturday 06Z is expected to move into the Aegean region by Sunday morning. Quiescent SFC conditions exist over SW and S parts of Europe, where weakly unstable air is present.

DISCUSSION

... Iberian Peninsula ... France ... N Italy ...

Scattered diurnally driven TSTMS should develop across the Iberian Peninsula, France, and parts of Italy in a weakly unstable air mass. Shear should generally be quite weak so that organized severe TSTM threat is rather low. However ... mesoscale augmentations of the wind field, e.g. associated with outflow bopundaries laid out by previous convection, may locally support some storm organization so that an isolated marginally severe hail/wind event cannot be disounted. Allover threat is too low to warrant a categorical risk, however.