Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 07 Apr 2007 06:00 to Sun 08 Apr 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 06 Apr 2007 14:06
Forecaster: DAHL

... SYNOPSIS ...

Upper blocking pattern persists across Europe, with a large and intense upper low covering NE Europe, Scandinavia, and NW Russia; another, albeit smaller, upper low is present over the Iberian Peninsula. Between these two features, an upper high is located over the E Atlantic and the British Isles. SFC charts feature a strengthening high pressure area over the western portions of Europe and a large low-pressure system over NE Europe/NW Russia. This system is promoting a strong cold surge into eastern portions of Europe. Quiescent conditions prevail over the Mediterranean regions.

... DISCUSSION ...

... SW Mediterranean ... Tyrrhenian Sea ...

It seems that convective activity will be limited to the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean regions in association with the Iberian upper low and a small vort max at its periphery, which will linger over the Tyrrhenian Sea. Thermodynamic profiles are essentially neutral, but models suggest presence of up to 20 m/s mesoscale mid-level wind bands at the periphery of the vort maxima, which should support at least briefly/weakly organized storms. It seems that allover severe threat will be rather limited, however, due mainly to a lack of focused synoptic- and mesoscale ascent. Further limiting factor is weak/non-existent shear in the inflow region of the TSTMS. However, minimal CIN and steep LL lapse rates may be indicative of a slightly enhanced waterspout threat. Also, those storms that do organize, will pose some marginally severe wind and hail threat, but a categorical risk does not seem to be warranted at this time.