Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 11 Mar 2007 06:00 to Mon 12 Mar 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 11 Mar 2007 02:01
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A blocking high pressure system over western/central Europe maintains stable conditions, except for the weak low pressure zone over the southern Mediterranean Sea to the Aegean Sea, where strongly convergent near-surface flow provides lift in a slightly unstable airmass.

Most active should become the areas around Sicily and around Crete. In the latter, deep layer shear will be moderate and some patches of SREH and low-level shear linger around, but these seem not that much collocated with instability and lift. Expect at most a marginally large hail event or an isolated flash flood due to a possible slowly moving, long lived storm.

Thundery convection is forecast to shift east/southeastward during the day for the eastern half of the Mediterranean, while the convergence zone southeast of Sicily is progged to shift northwestward.
The small southwest-Mediterranean area could yield some activity during the early hours of the forecast, associated with very steep mid level lapse rates and low level convergence.

Deep Atlantic convection behind a long cold front could reach Ireland by the end of the period.