Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 22 Feb 2007 09:00 to Fri 23 Feb 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 22 Feb 2007 07:42
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Northern and eastern Europe is covered by cold arctic air mass in the range of a high centered over Scandianvia. A well-developed frontal boundary is present at the southern edge of the cold air mass from southern Black Sea to Poland and southern Scandinavia. To the south of this boundary, moist and slightly unstable air mass has spread into Germany in the range of a weak short-wave trough.

Over western Europe, broad long-wave trough affects British Isles, where moist and slightly unstable air mass spreads eastward in the wake of a cold front. An upper jet streak curving around the eastward moving edge of the trough will provide DCVA, and chance for showrrs and thunderstorms will increase during the day. Although amount of instability is questionable, expect that a few thunderstorms will form underneath the vort-max. Given rather favorable vertial wind shear due to southerly surface winds and SSWerly winds aloft, thunderstorms that form are expected to be weak, but isolated mesocyclones are not completely ruled out, and given very moist low-levels and neutral to slighlty unstable lapse rates in the boundary layer, a tornado is not ruled out completely.

Over Mediterranean, broad upper trough moves eastward. In the range of this trough, moist and slightly unstable air mass is indicated by latest soundings. Some showers and thunderstorms will form, but given weak vertical wind shear, organized thunderstorms are not expected.