Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 18 Feb 2007 06:00 to Mon 19 Feb 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 17 Feb 2007 22:49
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Main feature will be slowly eastward moving upper cut-off low over the W Mediterranean region. Peripheral vort max is expected to promote weak cyclogenesis over Tunesia, accompanied by northward advection of moderately well defined EML across the S-central Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

... SW Mediterranean ...

Sunday evening/night ... it seems that scattered TSTMS will develop S of Sicily at the nose of the warm air mass advecting northwars E of weak SFC low. LLS will likely be quite slim, but 30 m/s deep shear and 0-3 km SRH on the order of 300 J/kg should be supportive of multicellular and mesocyclonic storms capable of marginally severe hail and possibly some severe wind gusts. Otherwise, severe threat should be quite low, though isolated waterspouts may occur in well-mixed modified polar air over the W Mediterranean throughout the period.