Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 04 Feb 2007 11:00 to Mon 05 Feb 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 04 Feb 2007 10:48
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook, issued at Sat 03 Feb 2007 18:32!

DISCUSSION

...Norway, Sweden,Skagerrak,Baltic Sea and Gulf of Bothnia...

An early update became necessary to reflect some model discrepancies.
9Z IR images already show a region of enhanced convection forming just west of the coastal areas of W - Norway. A pool of extremely low mid-level temperatures is still forecast to shift rapidly towards the east although 6Z model output of GFS came up with a slightly different solution.
GFS tries to split the pool of cold air during the next few hours more significantly and is now more in a line with NMM.
One part will cross CNTRL Norway and Sweden and should support isolated thunderstorm development well inland especially when the mean wind shifts from westerly to more northwesterly directions ( regarding the damping effect of the Norway foehn ).

The main reason for this update was a significant southward extension of the thunderstorm line due to the other pool of cold mid-level air, which will support marginal instability release as far towards the south as the Baltic Sea. Main convective activity will be displaced from the best kinematic environment, so don't expect any significant severe weather threat, although wind gusts could locally reach severe wind criteria.

The area over SW Europe was also canceled. Thermodynamic profilers will only become worse and 00Z sounding reports already indicate a capped environment well inland.