Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 01 Feb 2007 06:00 to Fri 02 Feb 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 31 Jan 2007 21:25
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

A subtropic high is located W of Europe. A short-wave trough spreads eastward at its northern flank, affecting northern British Isles. Shallow cold air mass is the range of the trough and weak instability as well as unfavorable veering are forecast, and organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. To the east, amplified upper trough forms over eastern Europe and spreads southward into Aegean. Weak cyclogenesis is expected over the warm sea surface, and latest model output suggests some CAPE over Aegean Sea. However, low-level convergence and WAA is forecast to be rather weak, and it is questionable that thunderstorms will form. Given rather weak vertical wind shear, organized thunderstorms are not likely. SE of the Atlantic high, relatively low geopotential covers the Mediterranean. A weak cut-off low moves eastward and will be the focus for some thunderstorms. Given weak and unfavorable vertical wind shear, I do not expect severe thunderstorms during te period.