Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 30 Jan 2007 06:00 to Wed 31 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 30 Jan 2007 00:48
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Most of Europe except the north and northeast is controlled by a anticyclone in mid levels following a large upper trough that dug into the Black Sea the day before. An upper cut-off low manages to live on near southern Portugal and southwestern Spain. Unstable air approaches Norway from the Atlantic, and two shortwave troughs along with orographic lift could enhance it just enough to bring some thunder. A new trough coming from the Baltics will cross Belarus and the Ukraine with steep mid level lapse rates, but the low-level airmass is too cold and dry to get significant convection out of this, except when the trough reaches the Black Sea.

DISCUSSION

No severe weather is expected except perhaps an isolated waterspout off the Iberian coast and the Black Sea.
A jet will reach southern Norway while also low level shear will be somewhat enhanced due to friction, but most instability appears to be behind most shear (and certainly behind SREH) - else a slight chance of a tornado could exist.