Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 13 Nov 2006 06:00 to Tue 14 Nov 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 12 Nov 2006 21:53
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC an intense N-S oriented mid/upper trough over the central Balkans will be moving eastward and is followed by a ridge from S Scandinavia to France. At the surface, a frontal system of a low pressure area east of Iceland extends initially over the North Sea to N France and move eastward. An E-W oriented mid/upper jet stream over the E Atlantic will become more SW-NE oriented as a trough upstream digs over the central N Atlantic.

DISCUSSION

Black Sea

Model guidance suggest than an intense shortwave will round the base of the larger trough as it mvoes over the Black Sea. Strongly-forced, and likely linearly organized storms will liekly develop offshore of Bulgaria and Romania during the late morning and/or afternoon hours. Gusty winds are likely with the system. It should move out of the forecast area in the evening.

S Norway

During the daytime, deep but weak instability will likely develop over the northern North Sea and the coastal area of S Norway behind the aformentioned frontal system. Showers, some of them thundery, will likely result and persist till the end of the forecast period.