Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 14 Oct 2006 06:00 to Sun 15 Oct 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 14 Oct 2006 02:51
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

High pressure centered over southern Scandinavia influences most of Europe with stable weather conditions. An upper cold pool with convective activity spins around in the Mediterranean Sea with the focal point today between Sardegna and Sicily.

A side lobe of the Mediterranean upper low causes a band of midlevel vorticity that is likely to again activate some minor convection out of slightly enhanced low-level theta-e around the Alps, in near neutrally stratified profiles (00Z).

Very moist, slightly unstable airmass is likely to spawn thunderstorms near the core of another upper low over Turkey.

DISCUSSION

In all thunderstorm areas deep layer and low-level shear are to remain weak to locally moderate. Storms will mostly be isolated and unorganised in nature, though an MCS is anticipated in the Mediterranean. A few waterspouts are likely to occur in the whirling convective mass, where convergence is present over warm sea water, with strongest low-level buoyancies.

Local flash flooding may occur with slow moving or training storms over land in the weak flow, especially in the Mediterranean and Turkey.