Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 17 Sep 2006 08:00 to Mon 18 Sep 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 17 Sep 2006 07:30
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

High-over-low-block persists through the period ... though the central-Mediterranean upper low is expected to weaken some until early Monday morning. very moist and weakly to moderately unstable air mass is present over the Ionian Sea ... the S Balkans E of the upper low. Weak elongated SFC low ... extending from the central Mediterranean into central Europe is accompanying the upper feature ... otherwise ... rather quiescent conditions prevail across most of Europe.

DISCUSSION

E Ionian Sea ... W Greece ... Albania

Vort maxima revolving around the Mediterranean upper low will again be focus for potentially severe convective development over the Ionian Sea and the S Balkans. CAPE should be on the order of up to 2000 J/kg over the S Mediterranean where a deep EML seems to be present ... and substantially weaker towards the north. However ... shear profiles will remain quite strong ... with 20 m/s 0-6 km shear ... and around 10 m/s LLS ... though e.g. MM5 and GFS appear to disagree on the LL shear strength ... GFS being more aggressive. Also ... bulk of convection may be slightly offset to the W from the best shear over the S Balkans. Nonetheless ... a few severe TSTMS ... likely of supercellular nature ... should develop ... capable of the entire facet of severe wether ... large hail, damaging winds and possibly also a tornado or two.

central Mediterranean Sea

Showers and TSTMS should persist beneath the Mediterranean upper low in uncapped and nearly saturated environment. Given steep LL lapse rates ... threat for waterspouts/non-supercellular tornadoes persists ... again warranting a LVL1.