Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 04 Sep 2006 06:00 to Tue 05 Sep 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Sep 2006 19:49
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Strong surface cyclogenesis persits over northern Europe as vigorous jet streak propagates eastward at southern periphery of
strongly positively tilted N-European upper trough ... resulting in extensive ... strong SFC low covering NE Europe and NW Russia by Tuesday 06Z. Weak high pressure persists over western parts of Europe.

DISCUSSION

NE Europe

Scattered convection should develop in the polar air overspreading NE Europe in the wake of the main cold front associated with the large-scale SFC low. Though appreciable DLS will only exist over the southern portions of the region where convection is anticipated ... LLS of 10 m/s is expected to be present across much of NE Europe. As the air mass is uncapped and LCLs are low ... a few tornadoes may occur. Over the N Poland ... S Belarus/N Ukraine where strong DLS should exist ... small supercells and/or linearly organized storms and bow echoes may occur. These may in addition to the tornado potential ... have chances of producing marginally severe hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts.

N Balkan States

Rather strong frontogenetic forcing is simulated to exist over the north Balkans late Monday night ... which may release weak CAPE which should be present over the region. ATTM it is expected that coverage will be quite low ... and a TSTM area is not warranted for this activity.