Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 03 Sep 2006 13:00 to Mon 04 Sep 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Sep 2006 13:52
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

refer to convective forecast....

DISCUSSION

Update is been issued as models consistently develop convective precipiation as a result of an approaching shortwave trough, that however is not easily discerned on water vapour imagery. Storms will likely form over extreme northern Germany during the remainder of the afternoon. Evolution of these storms, that will have very limited surface-based CAPE available is rather uncertain. However, their development in an environment of strong low-level shear, 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 and low LCL heights suggests that they may spawn a few tornadoes. Otherwise, given the 20-25 m/s winds at 850 hPa, severe gusts are possible.
The convective activity is expected to continue overnight and affect northern Poland this evening and later the Baltic States as well as western Belarus.