Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 26 Aug 2006 08:00 to Sun 27 Aug 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 26 Aug 2006 07:51
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Intense upper zonal flow is present over the Atlantic ... meandering around quasi-stationary upper long-wave trough which is centered over central Europe ... providing the Mediterranean and E Europe with moderately strong shear profiles. Diffuse LL frontal boundary is aligned roughly parallel to the upper frontal zone ... with weakly to moderately unstable ... and quite moist air to its S/SE. Weak cyclogenesis is simulated ahead of vort max rounding the base of the trough over Italy/the Adriatic Sea late in the forecast period. Except weak high building into W Europe ... pressure distribution will be rather flat.

DISCUSSION

eastern and southern Balkans ... Ionian Sea

Most unstable air appears to be present over the Ionian Sea and portions of SE Europe ... where SFC dewpoints are locally exceeding 20°C ... resulting in weak to moderate CAPE. Though soundings reveal only minimal instability farther north over the Adriatic Sea and the Balkans ... it should remain sufficiently strong for further convective development.

Main Foci for evolution should exist in upslope-flow regime over the W Balkans ... and along frontal boundary curving from the western Ukraine across Romania into the S Ionian Sea. Deep shear of up to 15 m/s is expected ... which should promote multicellular storms ... capable of producing some hail and strong wind gusts ... though an isolated mesoscyclone or two may also occur ... primarily acting to augment the hail threat.

Otherwise ... organized severe threat should be quite low ... though chances seem to exist for a few spouts in the coastal regions of the Baltic Sea and North Sea given nearly saturated boundary layer ... minimal LL shear and strong LL buoyancy.