Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 17 Jul 2006 06:00 to Tue 18 Jul 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 16 Jul 2006 20:17
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Within a large-scale trough stretching from Karelia to the eastern Balkans, an intense mid/upper low to the southeast of St. Petersburg moves northward.
Another mid/upper- low over the western Ukraine remains almost stationary.
A strong westerly flow is present north of a mid/ upper ridge that stretches from Spain to the southern North Sea, while a surface anticyclone is centered over the Benelux countries.

DISCUSSION

Srn France, Spain, Italy, Alps...

Significant latent instability is likely to redevelop over much of southern France and MLCAPE50 of 1500 J/kg is likely to develop locally. However, rather strong CIN and the weak vertical wind shear will generally prevent organized larger convective systems to form. Locally some storms could however bring some strong and perhaps marginally severe weather, primarily hail of up to 2-3 cm in diameter and strong wind gusts.