Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 17 Jun 2006 06:00 to Sun 18 Jun 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 16 Jun 2006 14:04
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

No significant change (compared to yesterday) will occur over Europe.
Broad upper-level trough will continue to affect parts of SW Europe, while another trough should slowly shift NE-ward.
A small-scale, but well developed upper-level system will continue its slow eastward drift over parts of central Europe, causing an influx of cooler and drier air over parts of France - Germany.
Hot and dry conditions will prevail over most parts of the Mediterranean area.

DISCUSSION

.....Portugal and Spain...

Upper-level trough should support widespread instability release and TSTM development in a nearly uncapped environment can be expected. Weak shear should preclude any severe TSTM threat.


...Parts of France, Switzerland, and most parts of Austria....

In front of a slowly southward moving frontal boundary, airmass will be favorable for TSTM development.... Pretty humid boundary layer and weakening, but still fine mid-level lapse rates should be enough for locally up to 1000 J/kg instability release......Well...wind shear over France will be as low as it can be, so the storm mode should be scattered pulsating storms.... Main risk looks like to be a hail threat within stronger cells .

Further towards the east, DLS should at least reach 10m/s, but over-all convection mode with attendant risk will be the same.

Recapitulating, you can say that this will be a marginal level-1 situation, but each stronger cell in this area has the potential to produce hail, matching the criteria, so I went with a broad level-1 area at this time.

...The Czech Republic, parts of Poland and northern Austria...

Conditions in this area will become more favorable for a few organized storms, because of DLS ( 15-20m/s ) and strong instability release....Main threat will be an enhanced hail risk with each more discrete cell.