Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 10 Jun 2006 06:00 to Sun 11 Jun 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 09 Jun 2006 19:18
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Omega-type upper flow pattern exists across Europe ... with the associated upper ridge anchored over the central portions of Europe. Upper trough ejecting from the W European/E Atlantic upper longwave trough ... will undercut the central-European ridge ... cross the SW MEditerranean ... and eventually merge with SE European upper low towards the end of the forecast period. At low levels ... high pressure will exist across central and E portions of Europe ... and rather intense/large SFC low off the British Isles over the Atlantic ... which support northward advection of warm/moist air across W portions of Europe.

DISCUSSION

E Iberia

Iberian vort max should maintain convective storms through Friday night ... which will affect E Spain by the beginning of the period. It seems that this system will largely consist of convective debris ... with little degree of organization despite 15 to 20 m/s deep shear. An isolated marginally severe TSTM event cannot be excluded with this activity ... but allover threat should be rather low.

W France ... S UK

Isolated TSTMS should form over central France ... and maybe into the southern UK ... in the afternoon hours in weakly unstable air mass. Main negative will be strong capping courtesy of a Spanish EML which is overspreading France. It seems that low-level and deep-layer shear may become marginally supportive of severe TSTMS over NW France ... and even more so across the S UK ... though thermodynamic fields should be somewhat weaker there. However ... it does not seem that coverage will become large enough to warrant a level-one threat. MM5 advertises rather strong low-level shear which may indicate some potential for a tornado or two ... especially over the S UK in the evening hours. An upgrade to level one may be warranted If TSTMS become more widespread than currently anticipated.