Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 19 May 2006 06:00 to Sat 20 May 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 18 May 2006 20:10
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Intense WSW-erly flow will continue over most parts of Europe... During the next 24 hours, a series of weak short wave troughs will travel over France-Germany-Poland from the west towards the east.
Meanwhile, most parts of southern Europe will see warm and stable conditions and therefore TSTM activity/ coverage is expected to be too low for highlighting any area.
During the latter part of the forecast period an impressive synoptic configuration for an intense depression will evolve over the extreme NE Atlantic and this system should effect parts of NW-Europe during the night hours.

DISCUSSION

...most parts of central/southeastern Europe...

First round of enhanced convection development will be found under an eastward moving upper-level trough ( crossing Germany during the morning hours towards the NE )... Although best shear and instability should be displaced , a region from N-Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic looks fine for an at least marginal enhanced severe weather threat.... in form of isolated wind gusts, reaching severe criteria.
More robust instability values over Poland would also help for a marginal hail risk
with maturing storms... Current thinking is, that coverage of TSTMs will be too low for higher probabilities.

A belt of stronger winds in the mid-levels and at least low-end instability values would mean an enhanced risk for severe TSTMs over the
level 1 area during the afternoon hours... DLS in the order of 25-30m/s would pose a severe wind gust risk with each TSTM, which can develop / bow out.

Next short wave trough will reach Switzerland and SW Germany during the evening hours... Models like GFS indicate an increase in convective precipitation, but instability looks too marginal for a significant TSTM risk. Topography could help for isolated storms to develop , but confidence in TSTM development and expected low coverage is too low for considering strong DLS by issuing higher probabilities.

...parts of Ireland and SW United Kingdom...

Intense depression will arrive during the late evening and night hours over the area of interest... Weak instability release will be expected and isolated TSTM development should be restricted to the core of the system, where cool mid-level airmass can be found... Main concern will be an increasing severe non - convective wind gust threat, especially, when cold front will reach NW France and SW United Kingdom during the late night hours.