Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 14 May 2006 06:00 to Mon 15 May 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 13 May 2006 23:34
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Sunday at 6:00 UTC a meandering zonal flow exists across Europe in the mid-troposphere. The strongest flow is a cyclonic jet around a low over northern Scandinavia. At lower levels a well-defined cold front stretches from near Archangelsk to Vologda to northwestern Poland to near Luxembourg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop southeast of the frontal zone where a relatively moist air-mass should be present.

DISCUSSION

Hungary, Czech, Slovak, Austria

Quite widespread thunderstorms are expected to initiate as the air-mass destabilises as a result of diurnal heating. Rresulting MLCAPE values mostly below 1000 J/kg and rather weak shear imply the threat of severe weather will be relatively small.

northern Spain, southwestern France

The GFS 1318 suggests that convective initiation may occur across northern Spain and possibly across extreme southwestern France as well. Shear should be sufficient to help initiating storms in this area to become multicells or possibly supercells capable of producing large hail. Other models do however not develop any deep convection, so that the resulting threat of severe weather is too small for a threat level 1.