Forecast Update
Valid: Wed 10 May 2006 14:00 to Thu 11 May 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 10 May 2006 14:43
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

DISCUSSION

Belgium...extreme northern France

A pool of relatively high moisture appears to have formed over much of Belgium, south of a dry-line approximately along a line Antwerp-Maastricht-Luxembourg.
The moist layer is capped by very dry air with high lapse rates that originates from northern Germany and the Netherlands.
The capping inversion appears to have been broken during the early afternoon and has resulted in a couple of well-organized storms, that should have up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE available. It appears likely that the cap will break in a few more places across the area and that storms producing large hail and locally strong (possibly severe) gusts can be expected.

eastern Bulgaria, Romania

Westerly winds in the lower troposphere are expected to increase somewhat, while boundary layer winds are between south and east in most places. As a result, an environment of relatively strong low-level shear should form. Ongoing destabilisation as a result of strong solar heating is expected to lead to the initation of additional storms. These could become rather well-organized and may develop rotating updrafts and/or small bowing squall lines. A threat of large hail and severe gusts is expected. Some risk of tornadoes will exist as well given the strong low-level shear.