Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 10 May 2006 06:00 to Thu 11 May 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 09 May 2006 22:33
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Broad WLY upper flow is present over the Mediterranean regions. Vort max over N Italy/N Adriatic Tuesday late evening ... is expected to merge with SRN frontal zone and accelerate eastward across the S Balkans and into the Black Sea during the period ... with upstream ... likewise eastward accelerating ... vort max crossing the NW Mediterranean and parts of Italy. Broad large-scale trough remains anchored over eastern parts of Europe ... with rather quiescent conditions prevailing at low levels.

DISCUSSION

S UK ... SW-central Europe

Diurnal heating should again promote development of scattered TSTMS ... which will continue to pose some potential for very gusty outflow winds ... which may briefly attain severe levels ... given persistence of deep and dry CBLs. Generally weak shear profiles ... and minimal CAPE suggest that organized severe threat will be limited ... and a categorical risk is not necessary ATTM.

southern Balkan States

Vigorous DCVA-forced ascent is expected to overspread the southern Balkan States during the period. Instability will be the main problem ... and may turn out to be too low to support widespread TSTM development. If storms can be maintained ... it seems that wind profiles may become marginally supportive of organized severe storms. Given strong forcing for UVVs ... line of convection with imbedded bows and mesocyclones could develop. Main threat would be marginally severe wind gusts along with some hail ... though increasing low-level shear suggests that an isolated tornado or two may occur as well. However ... scenario will strongly depend on the CAPE ... which is too uncertain ATTM ... and a level one does not appear to be warranted.