Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 07 Mar 2016 09:00 to Mon 07 Mar 2016 15:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 07 Mar 2016 09:37
Forecaster: DAFIS

As of 09 UTC, CRR Instantaneous Precipitation Classes from SEVIRI radiometer show convective rain rates of more than 30 mm/h affecting SE Albania and NW Greece with intense lightning activity. The lack of radar information does not allow a thorough examination of the updrafts, but the BL over NE Ionian Sea is very moist, with 11-12 g/kg of mixing ratios according to latest NWP models. Moreover, about 1200 J/kg of MLCAPE overlap with 25 m/s of DLS and SREH0-3km of about 300 mē/sē.

Among the slowly moving cold front, numerous storms have developed. Given the highly-sheared, unstable environment in which they develop and a jet streak near 850 hPa, they will likely produce large hail and severe wind gusts among linearly-organized convection the next 6 hours. Finally, tornadoes are expected within the most (embedded) rotating updrafts.

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