Valid: Tue 06 Dec 2016 06:00 to Wed 07 Dec 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 05 Dec 2016 21:56
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION
Two wide mid/upper-level systems split Europe in half, in the western parts a ridge is gradually forming extending from the Azores up to North Sea and over the eastern parts, polar air masses reduce geopotentials. A short-wave trough will cross Central Mediterranean Sea tomorrow, providing some lift to already unstable air masses.
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast over the Mediterranean Sea and and slow storm motion may yield an augmented heavy rainfall risk onshore, especially in South Italy but a level 1 may not verify. Generally, no severe risk is anticipated with the main thunderstorm activity occurring offshore. Instability is weak and convergence zones seem very local offshore. Moreover, some waterspouts are expected due to rather cold mid-level air masses east of Italy. Storms around Italy and Greece will become more active at the early morning of Wednesday and latest model guidance suggest possible heavy rainfall threat in several parts of Mediterranean basin, but beyond the time range of this outlook.