Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 11 May 2024 06:00 to Sun 12 May 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 10 May 2024 14:04
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for parts of W Georgia mainly for excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued for the Cordillera Cantabrica, Sistema Iberico into SW France for isolated large hail, strong gusts and heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Turkey into Syria and N-Iraq for a few large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rain events.

SYNOPSIS

A blocking ridge is established from Spain to Benelux into Norway with a pronounced trough covering E-Europe into the E-Mediterranean. Another but much weaker upper trough sits atop the Bay of Biscay with a slow motion to the ENE to NE. This configuration in general assists in a southward advection of a more continental airmass over most of Europe with a manageable moisture content. Hence numerous confined regions with enhanced thunderstorm probabilities exist. Displaced CAPE/shear fields for most parts keep any severe risk on a low-end side - only far SE Europe will see better chances along the fringes of an active subtropical jet.

DISCUSSION

... Turkey into Syria and N-Iraq but also Georgia ...

An active day with scattered to widespread and early CI is anticipated for this region as a marine airmass sneaks beneath the upper trough, filled with colder mid-levels. Hence a broad area of 500 to locally up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE evolves. Weak cap should support messy CI with numerous upscale growing clusters which interact with each other betimes. This should lower the general severe risk as otherwise favorable kinematics along the periphery of an active subtropical jet are forecast with 3 and 6 km shear aoa 20 m/s. Despite the high storm coverage, any more discrete storm poses a large hail and severe wind gust risk next to heavy rain.

A nocturnal heavy rain event (probably enhanced by embedded thunderstorms) is forecast over W-Georgia as growing clusters in a modest MUCAPE environment interact with the orography and a southward sagging cold front. In addition, lowering MSLP over the E Black Sea induces persistent onshore flow, which feeds moisture into ongoing convection. Flash flood producing rain is possible and probably more widespread, which was the reason for a local upgrade to a rainfall-driven level 2.

... N-Spain into SW-France ...

Next to the leisurely NE ward moving upper trough, scattered thunderstorms evolve and grow into a loosley organized cluster. MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range with DLS around 15 m/s are adequate for a few organized multicells with large hail and strong downdrafts - the latter risk is enhanced over SW France with better mixed BL air mass and a temporal growing cold pool next to the NE-ward shifting storm cluster. Betimes convection turns more elevated over W France during the night with mainly a heavy rain issue on a local scale.