Valid: Thu 20 Feb 2020 06:00 to Fri 21 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 20 Feb 2020 00:13
A level 1 was issued across southern Turkey and Greece mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.
A digging east European trough progresses east with ist main vorticity axis crossing the Adriatic and Greece on Thursday and the Aegean in the following night. Ahead of the trough, a moist air mass advects into the east Mediterranean. Upstream, another digging trough crosses the British Isles, North Sea, and northern Germany.
Ahead of the approaching trough, lapse rates of a moist air mass continue to increase at low levels. Latest models indicate low-level CAPE and equilibrium level temperature as low as -30°C. Thunderstorms are therefore forecast, especially along the Turkish coast where upslope flow assist to lift. Furthermore, frontal lift is expected. Storms that form may be not too well-organized since the low-level wind field is relatively weak and vertical wind shear stays below 10 m/s in the lowest 3 km in most places. Multicells are forecast in 20 m/s 0-6 km shear with straight-line hodographs. However, locally, topographic modification of the low-level wind field can result in some veering at low levels, and since CAPE is available, rotating updrafts can occur, with a potential of tornadoes. Main threat, however, is excessive rain along the mountains ranges.